Assumptions
Factor |
Assumption |
CO₂ |
Not considered a pollutant or is captured/stored later |
Water Use |
Regulated across all sources; cooling towers or dry cooling required |
Compliance Cost |
Nuclear no longer burdened by long licensing and construction delays |
Coal Waste |
Treated as valuable raw material (e.g., fly ash for cement, gypsum from scrubbers) |
Nuclear Tech |
Gen IV SMRs in widespread use (e.g., 50–300 MWe units, modular build, passive safety) |
Grid Role |
All three provide baseload or load-following power |
Fuel Pricing |
Moderate and stable (no energy crisis or supply chain disruptions) |
Performance Comparison
Category |
Coal (IGCC + Scrubbers) |
Natural Gas (CCGT) |
Nuclear (Gen IV SMRs) |
Thermal Efficiency |
40–45% |
55–62% |
30–35% |
CAPEX ($/kW) |
$3,500–5,000 |
$900–1,300 |
$4,000–7,000 (modularized) |
O&M Cost ($/MWh) |
$30–50 |
$10–20 |
$10–25 |
Fuel Cost ($/MWh) |
$15–25 |
$25–35 |
$6–10 |
Water Use (gal/MWh) |
300–500 (with cooling towers) |
100–250 |
300–600 |
Air Emissions |
Very low (excluding CO₂) |
Very low |
None |
Waste |
Usable (fly ash, FGD gypsum, slag) |
Minimal |
Compact, long-term storage required |
Ramp/Flexibility |
Slow ramp (newer designs better) |
Fast ramp |
Medium (SMRs better than traditional) |
Footprint (Land & Supply) |
Large (mining, transport) |
Medium |
Small |
Energy Density |
Medium |
Medium-high |
Very high |
Build Time |
4–7 years |
2–4 years |
2–5 years (with factory builds) |
Lifecycle (years) |
40+ |
30+ |
60+ |
Grid Resilience |
High |
High |
Very High (passive safety, long refuel) |
Strategic Role Summary
1. Coal (Clean & Integrated)
- Strengths: Long-term fuel security; byproduct reuse; high reliability; domestic resource.
- Drawbacks: Still low flexibility; moderate efficiency; large physical/logistical footprint.
- Strategic Role: Best suited for regions with abundant coal and industrial reuse markets.
2. Natural Gas (CCGT)
- Strengths: High efficiency, low CAPEX, grid agility, low emissions.
- Drawbacks: Still fossil-based; dependent on well infrastructure; less long-lived.
- Strategic Role: Excellent transitional and peaking solution; strong complement to renewables.
3. Nuclear (Gen IV SMRs)
- Strengths: Highest energy density; no air emissions or CO₂; long lifespan; modular & scalable.
- Drawbacks: Still needs safe waste handling; high upfront cost; novel tech in deployment stage.
- Strategic Role: Ideal for low-carbon baseload, remote areas, and national strategic assets.
Adjusted Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE)
Source |
LCOE ($/MWh) |
Notes |
Coal (IGCC w/scrubbers) |
~$75–95 |
Lower with valuable waste |
Natural Gas (CCGT) |
~$45–70 |
Highly competitive if fuel costs are stable |
Gen IV SMRs |
~$65–85 |
Assuming factory production and streamlined permitting |
Final Verdict (Under Optimized Assumptions)
- Most Economical Short-Term: Natural Gas
- Most Strategic Long-Term: Gen IV SMRs
- Most Viable if Industrial Ecosystem Exists: Clean Coal
All three could coexist in a diversified, stable energy grid:
- Coal filling a regional or industrial niche,
- Gas providing flexibility and economy,
- SMRs ensuring long-term sustainability and energy security.
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